Rabu, 26 Maret 2014

MindBullets: News from the Future

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China beats the odds and the analysts and doubles its economy in a decade
Dateline: 8 August 2025
China has proven all its detractors wrong - again. Despite predictions of economic collapse by global doomsayers, China has doubled its GDP in ten years, rising from the second most important economy to top spot, eclipsing even the United States, although not by much. How did the 'Middle Kingdom' do it?
China faced down its biggest demographic crisis, with the population segment that provides the workforce declining by 70 million people since 2010. Many feared this would precipitate a collapse, as the relaxation of the one-child policy was too late to boost fertility rates. Urban Chinese families choose not have more children, even if they are allowed to.
But China astounded the economists; there's another side to China's population imbalance. Men of the marrying age outnumber women by more than 12%, which means that young men are supremely motivated to be rich and successful, to attract a wife. This social drive has ensured China's entrepreneurs opted for deferred gratification and continued to perform way above global averages, in innovative ways.
Alongside this gender-fueled ambition, operates a further cultural driver, the highest rate of saving and investment in the world; it's a China tradition to put more into savings, both households and companies, than any other nation. It's relatively easy to shift the economy more towards consumption, and boost growth. The reserves are there.
So how did China follow the model of Korea rather than Argentina of the '90s, and avoid the middle class trap? A high level of savings and a powerful desire to outperform merely needed wise policies, and leaders, to ensure continued stellar growth. China had one other advantage; coming late to the game, its leaders could observe - and learn from - the mistakes of its predecessors.
Now China can reclaim its title of 'Middle Kingdom', the center of the world, and central to global growth. The question should not be how China got there, but rather: "Where to from here?" Is this the plateau for modern China's supremacy? Or are there more wonders to come?
Published 27 March 2014
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Links to related stories
1. Ten Predictions for China's Economy in 2014 - Bloomberg, 21 November 2013
2. China's Demographic Collapse - Forbes, 12 November 2013
3. China and India: Boom or Bust? - BCG Perspectives, 13 December 2012
4. MindBullet: POUNCING TIGER, STUMBLING DRAGON (Dateline 6 June 2021, Published 6 October 2011)
5. MindBullet: FUEL AND FOOD CRISIS SPARKS NEW GLOBAL INFLATION SPIRAL (Dateline 25 August 2017, Published 9 September 2010)
6. MindBullet: THE GREAT FALL OF CHINA (Dateline 8 August 2018, Published 3 November 2011)
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Despite appearances to the contrary, FutureWorld cannot and does not predict the future. Our MindBullets scenarios are fictitious and designed purely to explore possible futures, challenge and stimulate strategic thinking. Use these at your own risk. Any reference to actual people, entities or events is entirely allegorical. Copyright FutureWorld International Limited. Reproduction or distribution permitted only with recognition of Copyright and the inclusion of this disclaimer. Public domain image.
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